Economy
How are Fed rate probabilities priced and read?
The market's implied odds come from futures prices via an assumptions list — most prominently a fixed meeting-day risk-free rate — and the assumptions move the…
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Economy
Economy coverage from UZU NEWS.
Economy
What does a PMI diffusion index actually measure?
Breadth, not magnitude — a diffusion index counts how many firms report improvement, which is why 50 is a line, not a level.
Economy
Why the unemployment rate and payrolls can tell opposite stories
One number comes from a survey of households, the other from a survey of establishments — different frames, different failure modes.
Economy
What does a yield curve inversion actually signal?
Every U.S. recession since the 1970s was preceded by an inversion — with lags of months to years and documented false positives elsewhere.
Economy
How is the CPI actually measured?
A fixed basket, chained updating, and a substitution correction — the CPI's machinery, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics documents it.