Economy
What do consumer confidence surveys actually measure?
Two surveys, different questions and timing — and a documented gap between sentiment and spending that is the finding, not a flaw.
Author
Sofia Lindqvist
Sofia Lindqvist builds models for a living and is unusually honest about how often they are wrong.
Articles by Sofia Lindqvist
Analysis
Feature importance is not causation: the mixer problem
Importance scores measure a model's reliance on inputs under correlations — a variable your model ranks first may only be standing in for the real driver.
Investing
Dividend yield or total return: which number answers your question?
The two statistics differ by construction — one prices income against price, the other measures everything — and confusing them misprices risk.
Analysis
What does it mean for a probability forecast to be calibrated?
Calibration is the match between stated probabilities and observed frequencies — measurable with Brier scores and reliability diagrams, and distinct from…
Investing
How much international diversification do you actually get?
Correlations, coverage and return dispersion set the measurable answer — and each has moved over the decades.